The U.S. Treasury market is entering a significant transition period in 2025, facing both structural adjustments and all-too-familiar policy discussions. As the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) shift from a zero interest-rate policy (ZIRP) coincides with a substantial $7.5 trillion refinancing cycle, markets are also preparing for another round of debt ceiling negotiations.
Stocks continued to climb the wall of worry last week and shrugged off tariff headlines, inflation volatility, and signs of a slowdown in retail spending.
Expected continued steady economic growth should enable corporate America to grow profits at or near a double digit pace in 2025.
With China’s DeepSeek pressuring investors to take a closer look at the current environment of artificial intelligence (AI) development within the U.S., some are taking a moment to question the accuracy of a much larger idea — American Exceptionalism.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) cut interest rates last September and, to date, the central bank has lowered rates by 1%. But over the same period, long-term Treasury yields are higher by 1% (per the 10-year Treasury yield).
As the new year officially gets underway, there’s the usual sense of renewed optimism and excitement over new opportunities.
With 2024 fully behind us, it’s a good time to celebrate our winning calls from last year while also reviewing some mistakes to learn from them and improve our process. The good news is we got more right than wrong last year, but there were some misses. Some course corrections helped. Perhaps the most impactful decision we made was to recommend investors stay fully invested in equities at benchmark levels throughout the entire year despite expecting a stock market pullback around Election Day.
As 2024 draws to a close, investors have fully embraced the stock market. The S&P 500 is up more than 25% year to date. The broader Russell 3000 Index is up 24%. The Nasdaq Composite is up over 31%. Even the laggards are up double-digits with 12% and 14% advances for the small cap Russell 2000 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Volatility was low, with a maximum peak-to-trough decline for the S&P 500 of 8.5% (the long-term average max drawdown is over 13%). As we turn our attention to 2025, the supports of the past year largely remain in place, but some additional pillars have been added as we discuss below.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) is moving more cautiously in adjusting policy, and markets might have a hard time resetting expectations. Throughout the latest press conference with Fed Chair Jerome Powell, equity markets declined as investors were befuddled with the large upward revision to 2025 inflation forecasts; despite disappointing inflation projections, the “vibecession” is over as businesses and consumers have become more optimistic.
To say the U.S. economy has been difficult to read is an understatement. From generationally high inflation and interest rates to concerns about the labor market, it’s no wonder consumers are unsure about the overall health of the economy.